Turns Out №2
Why the Cheapest Boots in the Store Are the Most Expensive Thing in It
My left boot died on a Tuesday in November, in the specific way cheap boots die: not dramatically, no explosion, just a quiet decision by the sole to become a sponge.
I was standing at a bus stop in eight centimetres of municipal slush, feeling ice water arrive between my toes like an eviction notice, and I did what any reasonable adult does. I got angry at the boots.
Wrong target. Hold onto the boots. They come back at the very end, and they will not be better.
The Aisle Where I Got Radicalized
Here’s what I believed, sincerely, until embarrassingly recently: being careful with money means buying the small one.
Small detergent. Small coffee. The 500g bag, the monthly plan, the just-enough. That’s what broke people do, and I was broke people, and I thought this was discipline. I’d walk out of the store with my tiny bag of washing powder feeling like a minimalist (?).
Then one evening I’m in the corner shop at the end of my street (the actual shop, I could take you there) and I finally read the small print on the shelf tag. Not the price. The per-kilo price, the one shops are required to print and correctly assume nobody reads.
Then I went and read the one in the supermarket, twenty minutes away, because by that point I had a suspicion.
Corner shop, 1.25 kg: €5.25. €4.20 per kilo.Supermarket, 3.5 kg: €9.10. €2.60 per kilo.
Same powder. A 60% surcharge, in writing, on two little orange stickers a twenty-minute walk apart. For what? For not having €9 today.
That gap splits almost exactly in half, and both halves are boring. The big box is around 20% cheaper per kilo than the small one on the same supermarket shelf. The corner shop then sells that small one for around 30% more than the supermarket does. Its rent is high and it turns over a fraction of the stock. Nobody in either shop is doing a single thing wrong.
There are just two doors. The big box wants €9.10 in one piece. The supermarket wants forty minutes of walking. That evening I had neither the nine euros nor the forty minutes.
I wasn’t buying detergent. I was renting the ability to buy detergent, one small bag at a time, and the rent was 60%.
That number is the only honest object in the shop. Pack size lies: roughly a quarter of the time the family box is the worse buy per kilo. Shop size lies both ways: a hundred and forty corner shops got priced against their nearest supermarket and came out dearer on almost everything, cheaper on bread. So you read the tag or you guess. I had been guessing for about eleven years.
(The last volume was this same arithmetic pointed at somebody famous. This one is pointed at me, in a boot full of slush.)
I stood there long enough that an employee asked if I needed help. Buddy. Nobody can help me. I’m doing arithmetic.
An Old Dead Fantasy Writer Beat Me to It by Thirty Years
1993 is the year money died where I’m from. Hyperinflation, the real kind: my parents didn’t read about it, they carried it, in bags. My mother hasn’t trusted a bank since, and her savings live in a place I’m contractually forbidden to print.
Honesty tax, paid up front: this isn’t my idea, and it was published that same year. Terry Pratchett (fantasy author, wrote about a flat world riding on a turtle, somehow also one of the sharpest economists of his century) put it in a novel. His character is a broke city watchman with thin soles.
A fictional policeman worked it out from his boots. My family took the same course by a more hands-on method. No boots in it. A lot of carrying.
The boots argument, and check every step, because it’s short and it’s a trap:
A good pair costs €150 and lasts five winters. A cheap pair costs €50 and lasts one. So, five years, which I did on a phone calculator standing up in the shop, twice, because I did not believe it the first time.
The man who has €150:€150, once.Dry feet, five years.The man who has €50:€50 + €50 + €50 + €50 + €50= €250.Wet feet, five years.
The poor man paid €100 more for the same five years of walking, plus interest, charged in wet socks.
(One flag, because my title is standing on this number. Pratchett invented those figures for a novel. Nobody publishes a durability index for boots, I looked, it was a strange evening. And the ledge is thinner than I’d like: €150 across five winters is €30 a winter, so a €50 pair wins on money the moment it lasts about one winter and two thirds. That is a stupid sentence and it is also the whole argument: if your cheap boots reliably manage two winters, the man buying them is simply right. Mine never have, though the winters that killed them were the old kind, with snow in them, and the last few have been mostly rain. Kinder to a €50 sole, rougher on my argument. Either way it is one man’s feet, not a finding. The shape gets measured properly later, on things nobody has to guess the lifespan of.)
So save up for the good boots, then. That was my answer too. I was extremely pleased with it for about a week.
Meet Dejan, Who Does Everything Right
Dejan is a warehouse guy. Thirty-four, sorts packages, no vices worth prosecuting, checks his account before buying bread, not out of virtue, out of necessity. By any behavioral measure, Dejan is more careful with money than I am, and I’m the one writing the essay about it.
I sat down to invent Dejan’s numbers and found out somebody had already counted the real ones, which is the most annoying thing that can happen to a man with a spreadsheet open. Researchers at the University of Bristol, in England, priced this for actual low-income households: about £490 a year extra purely for being short of cash, and the worst-hit families pass £1,000. (Sterling, suddenly, because that is where the arithmetic actually got done.) The line items are theirs and not mine: insurance paid monthly instead of upfront, the prepayment meter, the rent-to-own, the postcode loading on car insurance.
Here is what that shape looks like on one man’s year.
Insurance. Annual price €240. Dejan never has €240 in one place at one time, so he pays €24 monthly, which is €288 across the year. Surcharge: €48.
Phone and electricity. Prepaid, because the good contract wants a credit check and a deposit, and deposits are for people who can leave €150 sleeping in someone else’s account. Call the prepaid markup €10 a month. Surcharge: €120.
Groceries. Small packs, corner shop, no €60 lump to buy the month at once. The washing powder already showed me 60% on one product; across a basket that is not all washing powder, call it 12% on a €3,000 grocery year. Surcharge: €360.
The washing machine dies. He can’t do €400 today, so rent-to-own: €25 × 24 = €600. That’s €200 for not having €400. It runs over two years instead of one, so I’ve halved it to keep the year honest, which is me being scrupulously fair to a machine that has never once been fair to Dejan. Surcharge: €100.
The boots. €50.
Stack the year:
€48+ €120+ €360+ €100+ €50= €678.
(Dejan is made up. The people I built him from are not. Argue with my digits, not the shape. The Bristol study priced prepayment meters on their own at £227 a year more than paying by direct debit. My €120 is shy.)
€678 is nine-tenths of Dejan’s monthly take-home. He works one month a year, roughly January, entirely to pay the fee for being Dejan.
I read that number out to my mother. She said: so he never gets to stand still. She has never read a page of economics in her life and she got there in seven words.
And before you file him under other people: go and read your own shelf. The subscription you pay monthly because the annual price was a big scary number in one go. The small bottle. The delivery fee you swallow because the bulk order needs a plan you don’t have this week.
I walked out of that store feeling like a minimalist, remember. Discipline is mostly the story we tell about buying the small one. Dejan’s ledger is mine with the numbers filled in honestly, and I’d bet it’s yours with a few lines crossed out.
Now. If this were the whole essay, it would be a sad fun fact: being poor carries a fee, the fee is a month’s salary, the end. I believed exactly that for a while after the two stickers, and I was wrong in a way that kept me up.
Because that €678 is not the damage. The €678 is the deposit on the damage. Here’s the trail ahead: a car that is secretly a subscription, a browser with too many tabs open, and the way a coat gets read in a waiting room. Three more currencies. The euros were just the first one, and honestly the polite one.
The Car Gets to Pick the Mornings
Dejan needs a car for the warehouse shifts. You know how this goes. You have stood in a stranger’s driveway kicking a tyre, and you have felt that exact relief. He has €1,500, so he buys a €1,500 car, which is not a car, it’s a membership.
The €1,500 car is old enough that something fails every few months: €600 a year in repairs, on average, paid at random moments chosen by the car (the car prefers the worst ones). And every three years the car achieves total death and he buys another €1,500 car.
The €8,000 car (the boring, reliable one) costs maybe €150 a year in repairs and lasts fifteen.
(Those numbers are mine and not a study’s. I have owned two of the cheap kind and none of the expensive kind, so take the €600 as the shape of a year rather than a measurement of one. The shape is the part I’d defend.)
Fifteen years, stacked. Watch the totals, not the prices:
Dejan's route:5 cars × €1,500 = €7,50015 years × €600 repairs = €9,000Total: €16,500. And the car still doesn't start some mornings.The single-payment route:1 car × €8,000 = €8,00015 years × €150 = €2,250Total: €10,250.
The reliable car is €6,000 cheaper. It is also impossible, because it sits behind an €8,000 door, and Dejan has €1,500. So he takes the expensive route, the only one whose entry fee he can pay, forever.
But the euros are the smaller bill. Price the mornings the car doesn’t start:
Dead battery: one shift.One shift: €70 of pay.Four mornings a year(the car picks them): €280.Plus: the schedule.
That last line has no number on it and it is the expensive one. Miss enough mornings and the foreman stops offering the good shifts, and the good shifts are the ones that would have made saving possible. So the car bills him for the repair, then bills him for the day, then quietly bills him for the year he was going to use to get out of this.
While we’re here: the phone in your pocket. The shop window said “€0 upfront!” Go and check your contract. The €300 phone, financed, is €25 × 24 = €600. The zero in that window is the price of the door, not the phone. And it calls the door a gift. That’s not marketing. That’s bullshit with a font.
The premium is charged twice, once in euros and once in hours, and the hours are exactly the ones you’d need to earn the euros. The laundromat Saturday because the machine is on installment. The ninety-minute commute because the closer apartment wanted two months’ deposit. My own is the March course, paid for in one piece, sitting in a tab behind the ones about the car.
The cheap car doesn’t just eat money.
It eats Tuesdays.
The Night Watchman Has Expanded Operations
So who runs this? I went looking for a villain and found a night watchman.
His name is Bogdan. He has a thermos, a stool, and a folding chair he’s very proud of, and he stands at the door of every good price in the economy. He is not cruel. He is not even awake, fully. He has one rule, printed on a laminated sign, and he taps it:
“SINGLE PAYMENT ONLY.”
That’s the whole machine, drawable on a napkin: a row of doors, every door hiding a lower price, every door guarded by the same sign. Bulk aisle. Annual rate. The apartment with the deposit. The contract phone. The €8,000 car. Bogdan doesn’t check your character, your effort, or your math. He checks whether the money arrives in one piece, today.
And the shabby door isn’t free either, which is the part I got wrong for a month. Rent-to-own runs a credit check. So does the financed phone. Bogdan isn’t the only man on the wall, he’s just the one with a sign.
Capital isn’t just wealth you keep. It’s a keycard, and everything is cheaper on the other side of the door. Not having one costs you money every single day, and the fee never appears on any receipt.
I have tried explaining my character to him. My effort, my intentions, the spreadsheet I made. He has a thermos and he is not interested in any of that.
Forty-Seven Open Tabs, All of Them Rent
Here’s the currency I didn’t see coming, the one that reorganized this whole essay.
Everything fragile in Dejan’s life is an open browser tab. Will the car start tomorrow: tab. Which bill slides this month: tab. Is that noise the washing machine: tab. The tabs never close, because closing them costs money, and they never go quiet, because each one is wired to a genuine emergency. Dejan isn’t anxious. Dejan is computing, all day, a problem that has no solution at his income, and the computation runs on the same processor he needs for everything else.
This isn’t a metaphor I made up. Two researchers (Mullainathan and Shafir, an economist and a psychologist who wrote a whole book about being short of things) found a way to test it, and the way is the good part. They also wrote down what to do about it, and their answer is where this essay is heading, so if the useful half of what’s coming feels familiar, that is why.
Sugarcane pays once a year. So you can test the same Indian farmers twice: broke in June, paid in October. Hundreds of them, both times.
June: measurably worse on reasoning and attention.
October: fine.
Same man. What I can’t get out of my head is the June version of him. He has slept. He has eaten. The sun is up, the cane is standing there uncut, and nothing in that picture is missing except the money, and that alone costs him a night’s sleep worth of brain. Their comparison, not mine. Around 13 IQ points.
Nobody in that study was being careless. That is the part that took me a while to hold. The money was not gone because he was foggy. He was foggy because the money had not arrived.
Your brain, right on cue: “Hold on. Maybe it runs the other way. Stressed, foggy people make bad money decisions: maybe the fog causes the poverty, not the reverse. You’re picking the arrow you like.”
Me: That’s a real objection, and serious people make it. Some follow-up studies found weaker effects. The debate is live and I’m not going to pretend it’s settled physics.
Brain: Thank you.
Me: But sit with the farmer design for a second. Same farmer. Same character, same habits, same childhood, same everything: the only thing that changed between the two test dates is whether the money had arrived yet. Whatever fog he has in June, he grew it himself either way. The before/after gap can’t be explained by “he’s just a foggy guy.”
Brain: …
Me: That’s what the before and after is for.
Here’s where it turns nasty.
Escaping the premium requires exactly the resource it consumes. Comparing per-kilo prices. Reading the rent-to-own fine print. Planning the insurance year properly, once, in one sitting. The course I paid for in March and have not opened since April, which is sitting in a tab somewhere behind the ones about the car.
Every escape route runs on attention. Sustained, surplus attention. Which is the precise thing the open tabs are eating.
Nobody designed this. That’s the part I find hard to sit with. There is no room where it got decided, nobody to write to, and you can’t even hate it properly. It’s a moat that digs itself.
The Coat Gets Interviewed Before You Do
This is the short one, and it’s the one that made me angriest.
Your coat gets to the interview before you do. It sits down. It answers the first two questions. By the time you open your mouth, they are mostly confirming.
That isn’t personal, it’s a schedule. The landlord has nine minutes and eleven applicants. Nobody in that room is evil. Everybody in that room is skimming.
So they skim. The landlord reads the coat. The interviewer reads the tiredness. The loan officer reads the address, which is a document about your finances written by a postman.
And the man who arrives in the failing coat, twenty minutes late off the car that didn’t start, half-present behind forty-seven tabs, gets read as risk.
Risk gets quoted risk prices. The bigger deposit. The “we’ll be in touch.” The worse rate.
Bogdan works this door too.
No laminated sign here. He doesn’t need one. He looks at the coat, the shoes and the hour you walked in, runs the same arithmetic he runs at the bulk aisle, and taps a rule he never had to print. Same sign. Different alphabet.
Meanwhile it compounds the other way, and that’s the part that actually stings. The coat that closes, the arrival with ten minutes spare, the face that slept: all of it gets read as competence, and competence gets quoted better numbers. Same man, same job, same deposit, same everything he was told counted. The difference is eight hours of sleep and a zip.
Euros, hours, tabs, and now the fourth: the signal, which is how you get read. This one prices the symptom. The euros at least charge you for a fact: you genuinely do not have €240 today. The signal charges you for how the other three have already marked you. It is a fee on a fee on a fee.
And no. The conclusion is not “dress for the job you want.” You have heard that one from people who have never checked a balance before buying bread, and what they were telling you was to fix the symptom with money you do not have. (For the record: I own one blazer. I bought it for an interview, and it worked. That still bothers me.)
Dejan doesn’t need a nicer coat. The machine charges interest on appearances, is all. Fourth line item, same bill. And one buffer quietly pays all four: the coat, the car that starts, the closed tabs behind the eyes.
Confession before we go on, because this essay has a trick in it and I’d rather you hear it from me. I’ve drawn the four currencies as a cascade: money, then time, then mind, then signal, each feeding the next, one direction, very tidy.
The arrows also run backwards. Fog loses euros. A bad signal costs the job that costs the time. It’s not a waterfall, it’s a knot, and I straightened it because straight lines are easier to walk you down. The mechanism survives the confession (a knot where every strand tightens the others is worse than a cascade) but you deserved to know I combed it.
The Machine Has Office Hours
So it’s hopeless, then. A machine with no operator, no exit, four currencies, sorry Dejan.
No, and the reason is boring. Money does sometimes arrive in a lump. The tax refund. The thirteenth salary. The bonus, the good overtime month, the €300 that shows up whole instead of dissolved into thirty days.
You know roughly when yours arrives. Go and look at what the last one bought, I’ll be here.
Those are the moments the machine’s guard is down, the one day Bogdan’s stool is empty, and they are precisely the moments the lump gets broken into small relief and scattered. Not out of foolishness. Out of forty-seven tabs’ worth of genuine emergencies, each with a real claim on it.
My last refund went on a chair. A good one, for the desk, because my back was going and I had read an article. I did the research. I compared eleven chairs. I have never once compared the annual price of my own insurance, which I am still paying monthly, at a surcharge, from the chair.
I’d Like to Say Something About My Mother’s Mattress
The market charges you for not having money. It charges in four currencies at once. So the first money you ever hold whole is not a nest egg. It is not savings. The first €500, the first €1,000 that just sits there with no name on it: that is a discount card for your entire life.
It pays out in all four at once. I know which one I would take first. It isn’t the money.
I did not see the real product until the sugarcane farmers. The tabs close. The buffer buys back the attention. And attention is the fuel every other escape route burns. Reading the fine print. Finishing the course. Holding your patience at the interview. Being a person who gets read differently, because he is different, because he slept.
I went looking for something that pays like that and I did not find one. Not a fund. Not a raise the same size. Nothing else on the shelf dismantles the machine that is eating the exit.
So the buffer is not what’s left over after life. Inside the loop it is the best thing in the store. Buy it first, on purpose, at the weak points, with both hands. I say that as a man who bought a chair.
My mother has never once phrased it this way. She just says you sleep differently with something behind you. I used to think she was quoting an interest rate. She was quoting a higher one. The rate on a closed tab, compounding every night.
Two Things I Can No Longer Buy in Peace
The essay was never about boots. It’s about one principle: not having the money in one piece is a thing you get charged for, again and again, in more than one currency. That travels. It folds flat and fits in a pocket, and here it is working on things I never mentioned.
The printer. Find the cheaper version of a thing (the per-unit tag, the annual rate, the bulk box, the cash price) and then find the lump standing in front of it. Every shop prints its own confession on an orange sticker, in the size nobody reads. Gyms do it, insurers do it, airlines do it, and printer ink does it so spectacularly it should be in a museum: the cheap printer is the bait, the cartridge is the door fee, and it gets collected every few weeks from exactly the person who bought the cheap printer because the good one was a lump.
The loan. The one I couldn’t get to sit still. Why doesn’t somebody just lend the man the €150 for the boots? Somebody does. It’s called credit, and it is the only product on this page built specifically to solve the door fee: here’s the lump, pay it back in pieces. The machine’s own logic, running backwards, for a cut. And for the people standing closest to the door it arrives priced worse than anything else they are allowed to buy. Every step of that is locally reasonable (no buffer, more defaults, somebody has to put a number on it), and the sum is a product whose price climbs in step with the need for it. The cure, rationed by the disease. I don’t know where that stops being arithmetic and starts being something with a worse name, and a villain would be so much easier, because a spreadsheet is a very hard thing to shout at. I have a folder about it. It is not a good folder. It is mostly screenshots and one furious voice note to myself.
And if you read all of that with a comfortable balance in your account, the principle still fires, it just points somewhere else. You are not standing outside this machine. You are the part of it holding keys: you’re the two months’ deposit somebody can’t make, the invoice that can wait two weeks, the lump a friend needs for exactly six weeks and will not ask you for. Bogdan doesn’t only take money at that door. Sometimes he takes a phone call from someone who already has it.
My Boots Have Started Sending Me Mail
And here’s what the tabs taught me. Knowing was never the bottleneck. I’ve known everything on this page for months. Bogdan is still at the door. The sign is still laminated. And knowing where the exit is turns out to be nothing at all like having your hands free. That gap is the whole essay, and I am still standing in it.
The boots. Mine are still the €50 kind. One thing did change, and it’s only how I read them: they stopped being footwear and became a receipt. Every winter they print the same line, and the line was never you bought badly. It’s you didn’t get through the door. I stood at a bus stop in November and got angry at my boots, and the boots were never the target. They were the invoice. Arriving on time, addressed correctly, itemized in slush.
Sources
- The 'boots theory' of socio-economic unfairness: Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms (1993) — Wikipedia: Boots theory
- Low-income UK households pay a poverty premium averaging ~£490 a year, the worst-hit over £1,000 — University of Bristol Personal Finance Research Centre (2016 key findings)
- One in eight households pay at least one poverty premium, costing £2.8 billion nationally — Fair By Design and University of Bristol, poverty premium in 2022
- The premium's line items: insurance paid monthly rather than upfront, prepayment meters, rent-to-own, postcode-loaded car insurance. A prepayment meter alone costs ~£227 a year against direct debit — Bristol PFRC, Paying to be poor: uncovering the scale and nature of the poverty premium
- Roughly a quarter of multi-size grocery brands carry a quantity surcharge, so the bigger pack is not automatically the cheaper one per unit and the tag has to be read — Agrawal, Grewal & Kim, Quantity Surcharges on Groceries, Journal of Consumer Affairs (1993)
- A small independent shop charges materially more than a supermarket for the same staple: across 140 corner stores, gas-marts and pharmacies paired with their nearest supermarket, packaged dry goods ran 30% to 54% higher, with white bread the one item that went the other way — Caspi, Pelletier, Harnack, Erickson, Lenk & Laska, Pricing of Staple Foods at Supermarkets versus Small Food Stores, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health (2017)
- The conservative end of the same gap, measured inside one chain: a year of weekly checks put a Tesco Express basket 10% above the large stores, with individual items up to 37% — Which?, Is it more expensive to shop at Tesco Express and Sainsbury's Local convenience stores? (February 2023)
- Scarcity taxes cognition like a lost night's sleep (~13 IQ points); the sugarcane-farmer study — Mani, Mullainathan, Shafir & Zhao, Science (2013)